independently.
What is the expected number of times the die is thrown until two consecutive throws
of even numbers are seen?
C
Step-by-Step Solution
Insight: This is a "wait for a pattern" question — two consecutive evens. The trials are independent, so track progress toward the pattern using states, and write one equation per state.
Exam route:
Let (probability of even on a fair die).
States: (no progress / last was odd), (last throw was even), (done — two consecutive evens).
Let = expected additional throws from state .
From : throw once. With prob get even ; with prob get odd .
From : throw once. With prob get even (done, 0 more); with prob get odd .
Substitute :
Substitute into the second:
.
Answer: 6 (option C).
Learning route:
A fair die has 3 even faces (2, 4, 6) and 3 odd faces (1, 3, 5), so .
We want the expected number of throws until we see two evens in a row.
Define states by how much of the target pattern we have completed:
- : no useful progress (we are at the start, or the last throw was odd).
- : the last throw was even (we are one step into the pattern).
- : we have just seen two consecutive evens (absorbing state, we stop).
Let be the expected number of additional throws needed to reach starting from .
From , we spend 1 throw. With probability we get even and move to ; with probability we get odd and stay in . So .
From , we spend 1 throw. With probability we get even and reach (done, 0 more throws); with probability we get odd and fall back to (all progress lost). So .
Solving the first equation: .
Substituting into the second: .
Therefore .
The expected number of throws is 6.
Wrong paths:
- Option A (2): uses . This is the expected wait for a SINGLE even, not two consecutive.
- Option B (4): uses . This treats two consecutive evens as two independent events, ignoring the sequential overlap of attempts.
- Option D (8): uses . This incorrectly doubles the formula, perhaps thinking "two evens means multiply by 2".